Conjecture is the way forward

Depending who sent them, we are regularly informed that we face a dismal few years ahead, or that there may be a glimmer of hope visible in just a few months. Until recently, these have been accurate forecasts of the electronics sector calculated from in depth data analysis on industry trends, quarterly turnover of electronics manufacturers and economic climates. However, this last factor has proved rather difficult to evaluate of late. The current financial climate is an unfathomable hurdle for analysts because there is little or nothing to gauge forecasts from. Most of the last few quarters' results have revealed unprecedented losses and give little away other than the sheer unpredictability of the economy. It's ironic that the most accurate forecast yet is also the most honest. AFDEC, the Association of Franchised Distributors of Electronics Components, bucked the trend and refused to issue its yearly forecast due to severely limited visibility. While it was prepared to offer short term guidance, this was based largely on the success of the governments' attempts to stimulate the economy. It reiterates the thoughts of many I spoke to at electronica and Embedded World. "We just don't know!" It's an honest approach and one that has inspired me to consider a career as an Analysis Expert – although I prefer the term Conjecture Consultant. So, here goes: Q3 2009: Don't know Q4 2009: Not sure Q1 2010: Things are looking up Q2 2010: Don't hold your breath Some of these forecasts may be subject to change.