Distribution market showing a ‘squeezed middle’

I ask only because the market is showing some confusing signs. On the one hand is the forecast from the Electronic Components Supply Network (ECSN), the UK's distribution 'trade association'. It says sales through its member companies are likely to grow by about 1.5% in 2015, even though the economy is expected to grow by almost twice that rate. Yet 'high service' companies such as Digi-Key and Mouser, as well as small specialist organisations, are far more positive. So is there a raft of companies which are just 'hanging on' or is the picture more complex than it seems? ECSN believes the market available to UK distributors will grow to £1.095billion in 2015. But the total market for electronic components (TAM) is predicted to grow by more. One reason for this discrepancy is that sectors such as automotive aren't greatly served by UK distribution companies. With more electronic content in cars, the TAM is increasing, but distributors aren't 'in the loop'. But while ESCN points rather gloomily to a 1.5% increase in sales, some of its members are more bullish. John Macmichael, managing director of Solid State Supplies, said the company grew rapidly in 2014 and expects further expansion next year; implying double digit growth. "Our clear focus remains on supporting the electronic design community," he asserted. Meanwhile, the news from Mouser doesn't support the ECSN outlook, nor does that from Digi-Key. Outside of ECSN, there are companies like specialist comms distributor L2Tek, which claims demand is 'surging'. "We work closely with our customers and suppliers to provide expert and cost effective technical support," claimed director Tim McBride. What all this suggests is that a reasonable number of UK based distributors are neither large enough nor specialised enough to make headway. Instead, they are losing out to competitors who are more agile or who provide better service. Or are they just too comfortable?