Do you think the semiconductor industry is consolidating? If so, think again

But if you're talking to a technical audience, it's much better to have data to fall back on. Rhines also notes it's a good idea to do your research beforehand in order to understand why you – and maybe your audience – believe what you believe. And if you do that, be prepared for a shock. "Most of the time, I've found that actual data often conflicts with the well accepted views of the world," he says. He gives the example of preparing a talk on 'Consolidation of the Semiconductor Industry'. "I had a belief – one that was shared by most semiconductor people – that the semiconductor industry was consolidating. "The actual data showed exactly the reverse. In fact, the combined market share of the Top 1, top 5, top 10 and top 50 semiconductor companies had all been flat, or in continuous decline, for many years. The truth was the combined market share of the top 50 semiconductor companies has declined by 12% in the last 12 years. "Who would have thought?," he asked. The reason was that consolidation in the semiconductor manufacturing sector was equated to consolidation in the semiconductor design world. But whilst manufacturing is now dominated by a handful of companies – and by TSMC and Intel in particular – there are many more fabless semiconductor companies out there. In fact, Rhines suggests companies outside the top 50 now generate 19% of the semiconductor industry's revenues, compared to just a few percent in 2001. And, as Rhines asks, who would have thought that?