IoT set to disappoint, if Hype Cycle is to be believed
1 min read
Gartner's Hype Cycle is an interesting analysis of the state of technology introductions. Using the approach, the company places a particular technology at one of five points on a curve: innovation trigger; peak of inflated expectations; trough of disillusionment; slope of enlightenment; and plateau of productivity. Alongside that, it provides some indication of when the technology might reach the next stage of the cycle.
One of the technologies which is approaching the peak of inflated expectations is the Internet of Things. Gartner positions technologies here when, amongst other things, there is perceived to be 'mass media hype'.
Anyone who attended the recent Embedded World exhibition would probably agree with the assessment; it was almost impossible to avoid people talking up the technology, even in the vaguest terms.
Gartner believes it will be five to 10 years before IoT tips over into the trough of disillusionment. Yet many market forecasts say there will be more than 20billion connected devices by the end of this decade – some say many more.
What Gartner appears to be saying is that, once 20bn or more devices have been linked together, we will find out that reality fails to match up to expectations. Only then will the real applications for the IoT appear and the necessary technology be developed.
Meanwhile, stand by for another five years of hype...
