Smiles all round?

Yet one of the first things to appear in the inbox after the break was a survey from manufacturers' organisation EEF pointing to an almost unprecedented outburst of optimism from the 200 companies surveyed. According to EEF, 70% of those companies expect the UK's economy to improve in 2014, while more than half expect their exports to increase, with 10% predicting 'significant' increases in exports. So far, so good. But the EEF survey, optimistic as it is, suggests an increase in manufacturing output of 2.7%; a figure which doesn't sit readily with the ECSN's 5.2% forecast, unless the value of electronics used grows substantially. Adam Fletcher, ECSN chairman, admitted the UK's electronic components market is reliant upon the industrial sector and that the sector tends to lag any recovery, rather than lead. "But we will 'get to the party' and contribute to having a good time in 2014," he enthused. Hidden beneath the figures is the good old book to bill ratio, indicating whether or not orders are growing. Currently, the ratio is 1.05:1, but ECSN is looking for it to hit the 'magic number' of 1.1:1, indicating a healthy market. So back to the question of where growth might come from. Automotive and avionics continue to be strong, but won't provide all the increased business. Mouser says there's movement in most markets from a design point of view, while Avnet says it sees a lot of activity and would be 'disappointed' if UK sales weren't up by at least 4% this year. But Fletcher's view is interesting; he says growth is coming from 'low level manufacturing'; low complexity, high volume things that used to go offshore. And that has to be good news.