Photovoltaic market growth faster than expected for 2010
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Strengthening conditions in the global photovoltaic market in late 2009 are carrying over into 2010, according to market analyst iSuppli. The company has now raised its 2010 forecast for solar installations from 8.3 to 13.6Gigawatts. The new forecast calls for annual growth of 92.9% percent.
According to iSuppli, by 2011, global PV installations will nearly triple to 20.3GW, up from 7GW in 2009.
iSuppli analyst, Henning Wicht, said: "This will be an up and down year for PV installations. The first quarter of 2010 was negatively affected by winter conditions, likely causing a decline in installations compared to the fourth quarter of 2009. However, the second quarter is expected to be a blockbuster for the global PV industry. Reduced feed in tariffs (FIT) in Germany are coming in July and consumers in that country will rush to install PV systems before that occurs. A market correction will then happen in the third quarter, leading to a huge fourth quarter due to the approach of other countries' FIT deadlines in January 2011."
According to Wicht, the main driver of growth in the second half of the year will the perseveration of a favourable return on investment for homeowners and project developers. "In the second half of 2010 it will reflect system price declines that compensate for the FIT reductions," Wicht observed. "In some cases, the return on investment will remain higher than $10. These declines will be enabled by plummeting prices for solar modules during 2009 that are just now being reflected in system prices."
With the 2010 forecast for PV installations having been upped, there could be material supply constraints during the year. Additionally, there could be an installation bandwidth problem as there may not be enough trained crews to handle the amount of installations that are demanded.
