In a new research paper Counterpoint sees an easing inflation as helping to boost demand in emerging markets, while the integration of generative AI will help to attract buyers to premium devices.
Last year global shipments fell by more than 4% last year, caused by consumers cutting back spending in what has been an uncertain economy.
Emerging markets including the likes of India, the Middle East and Africa are seen to be major growth drivers for the smartphone market, especially the budget-economy segment, which is expected to grow 11% in 2024 after shrinking in 2023.
The segment, consisting of phones priced between $150 and $249, is set to benefit from easing inflation and the stabilisation of local currencies, according to Counterpoint.
Increased competition between Chinese companies such as Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi along with a recovery in demand for IT devices, is also said to be aiding growth in the segment.
The premium segment, in which prices for devices starts at $600, is expected to grow by 17% driven in no small part by the introduction of genAI technology but also by the growing the popularity of foldable devices.
According to the research, both Apple and Huawei are likely to emerge as winners in the premium market.
Steady demand for iPhones, particularly in emerging markets, is set to benefit Apple, while Huawei is expected to retain its strong presence in China, especially with the release of its 5G Kirin chipset.
