NAND Flash revenue to reach over $18billion in 2010
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The global NAND flash memory business will post record revenue in 2010 thanks to increased usage in smart phones and the newly invigorated tablet category, according to market research firm iSuppli.
iSuppli forecasts that revenue for NAND flash memory in 2010 will reach $18.7billion, up 38% from $13.5bn last year. It cites the boost in consumer electronics devices like smart phones and Apple's iPad as the main driver.
Michael Yang, iSuppli analyst, said: "With supply and demand both ramping up in the second half and well into next year, the NAND flash memory segment will continue to enjoy growth in 2011 - albeit at a less torrid pace of 25% - to $22.5billion."
During the next two years, however, iSuppli projections call for a mild decline in Average Selling Prices (ASP) ranging from 23 to 29%. "In addition, oversupply could be a problem beyond 2011, and 2012 presents significant risk for a downturn," Yang warned. "Given the current upbeat outlook, the industry may be goaded by over optimism to increase NAND flash production ahead of actual demand - leading to oversupply and a subsequent fall in the market."
The analyst anticipates the fourth quarter to experience some turbulence as manufacturing starts to slow in November and as demand from all segments - including the high performing embedded NAND sector - downshifts after the holiday season.
Yang noted: "Overall, NAND flash revenue will dip slightly in 2012, pick up the year after, and then retreat once more in 2014."
