These predictions explore the overarching systemic changes that are underway around the global semiconductor supply chain and sustainability initiatives specific to key power-reliant industries.
According GaN Systems, the industry is at the inflection point when it comes to power GaN technology.
Notwithstanding nearly three years of significant global economic and geopolitical headwinds, the GaN power semiconductor has established itself as a preferred product solution across multiple market segments, including data centres, electric vehicles, industrial, and consumer electronics industries, and has accomplished this by solving some of the most pressing and critical power systems challenges around energy efficiency and design in these industries.
With the strong momentum of the electrification megatrend and an increasing number of products containing semiconductors, economic winners and losers will be determined mainly by those who can better manage their supply chains that not only enable the production of existing goods for businesses and consumers, but that support innovation for the near future.
GaN Systems five key predictions are as follows:
Supply Chain: Companies and Governments embrace multi-billion-dollar long-term plans to strengthen global semiconductor fabrication and packaging.
Many companies will be focused on consolidating manufacturing activities in one or two countries. Looking ahead, the global semiconductor supply chain will work towards developing a substantial US presence in both engineering design and manufacturing. In the United States, this means embracing a national strategic semiconductor policy – rather than politically convenient.
The CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 is expected to catalyse the geographic diversification of the semiconductor industry in the US during the next four years. The substantial economic muscle in the form of $52.7bn in grants, loans, and tax credits will drive investment in design, foundry, and fabrication facilities. Large chip manufacturers will receive as much as $2.5 to $3.0bn for each new fabrication facility they build in the U.S.
To accelerate next-generation chip design and production, the broad investment programme within the EU Chips Act will focus on increasing production capacities and improving the ability to identify and respond to the semiconductor supply crises. Above all, the EU Chips Act aims to strengthen Europe’s research and technology leadership, which consists of the capabilities, capacities, and controls necessary to act on long-term economic and societal objectives.
Semiconductor packaging will be addressed in the shorter term, with factory additions in Vietnam and India. A large portion of semiconductor wafer fabrication will remain in Taiwan (68% of all semiconductors and 90% of advanced chips). This will continue to expose the semiconductor industry to regional ‘single source’ vulnerability as fabrication expansion in Europe, Canada, and the U.S. builds out over several years.
Sustainability: The motivation for energy efficiency and natural resource conservation meets the political imperative of energy independence
Sustainability and profitability will be dual drivers of business success. For example, using GaN semiconductors will concurrently increase revenue through greater data density in data centres and mitigate the environmental impact (e.g., meet aggressive ESG goals). Additionally, meeting sustainability metrics for products and operations will be as necessary as meeting performance and cost requirements.
Pressures will increase for mass rollouts of technology for large-scale renewable energy collection, storage, and use. More energy-efficient power inverters, DCDC converters, and energy-dense storage will be needed in on-demand solar power systems. GaN technology will be at the centre of this solution.
In 2023 and beyond, we predict that there will be a natural acceleration of GaN demand to ensure a more sustainable future. The technology has been found to optimize power designs to decrease the carbon footprint of high-frequency devices and systems. GaN is uniquely positioned to enable a greener, more carbon-neutral future for the electronics industry. GaN power semiconductors aim to conserve energy and miniaturize devices by capitalizing on high switching speeds and low ON resistance.
Data Centres: Profitability meets sustainability initiatives in the move to greater GaN technology adoption
As data centres refresh hardware every three to five years, compounded with the EU Eco-design Lot 9 efficiency regulatory requirements in effect, there will be a significant opportunity for GaN to replace silicon in both rackmount power supplies and the individual redundant power supplies in servers. This upgrade of servers and build-out of server racks using GaN power supplies will lead by the innovative work from OEMs such as Intel and H.P. More server and rack power supply companies will follow, adopting GaN and making GaN ‘the standard’ for the industry.
New standards from tech giants will accelerate change to higher efficiency and smaller form factors for power supplies. The Open Computer Project (OCP) defines a new standard form factor, M-CRPS, for a server’s power supply that decreases the size by 30%. Legacy transistor technology, namely silicon MOSFETs, will struggle to deliver on this standard while GaN excels here. Additionally, OCP designs, many targeted for hyperscale computing, have increasing demands for very high energy efficiency, a characteristic best delivered by GaN.
The demands on power supplies will increase the use of GaN:
1) to increase efficiency via its properties of lower switching and conduction losses,
2) to increase power density via operating at higher frequencies than the ability of alternative technologies, and
3) smaller and more highly efficient GaN-based power supplies directly lower a data centre’s power bills and indirectly reduce cooling system costs.
Electric Vehicles: Pressures intensify to accelerate the move to EVs from both the moral motivations of climate change and the realities of energy economics
Automotive OEMs and their Tier 1 suppliers will continue to make decisions about their power transistor choices through the four lenses of performance, reliability, cost, and capacity. High-performance GaN solutions in the design stage in 2022-2023 will be mainstream in 2025-2026, delivering lower cost and more energy-efficient power solutions.
OEMs are increasingly moving into production with GaN, which will accelerate in 2023. GaN semiconductor companies will begin to see their share of EV designs increase as more 400V system designs rise in importance, multi-level GaN solutions for 800V systems are validated, and SiC experiences continued material shortages, yield challenges, and cost concerns.
Consumer Electronics: GaN becomes mainstream
GaN will increase its share in chargers from the popular 45W and 65W chargers to the growing market for higher power 100-180W chargers with both single and multiple port variations, delivering ultrafast and multi-device charging experiences to consumers.
For audio, GaN will enable mainstream brands to fulfill consumers’ mobile and voice-activated lifestyle demands with more compact form factors that deliver the same volume and audio quality of much larger devices.
New Class D audio systems design will accelerate with the adoption of ‘building blocks’ for GaN products that enable audio systems designers across markets to mix and match designs and maximize performance for their specific applications.
Growth in new application areas, such as home appliances, large screen T.V.s, E-bikes, and power tools, will result from companies’ acknowledgment of GaN’s mainstream position and value in consumer electronics and their validation of GaN-based system designs. Innovative GaN-powered products in these markets will hit the consumer market in 2023-2024.
“As global companies continue to face pressure to drive both profitability and sustainability, GaN technology takes on an even higher level of importance,” said Jim Witham, CEO of GaN Systems.
“Despite significant global economic and geopolitical headwinds of the last three years, GaN is now recognised as a widely adopted technology estimated to reach $2bn by 2027, driven by rising use in consumer electronics, automotive applications, data centres, and industrial and electric vehicles. As such, companies will continue to accelerate their commitment to greater energy efficiency, and we’ll see profitability and sustainability drive $6bn GaN growth."
Author details: GaN Systems
